Episode 54: A GAME OF THRONES, DAENERYS VI: "Waking the Drogo" SHOW NOTES!

Hello and welcome to the Not A Cast … podcast: the one true chapter-by-chapter podcast going through A Song of Ice and Fire one chapter a week. I’m one of your hosts Jeff better known as BryndenBFish. 

And I’m your other host Emmett, better known as PoorQuentyn. 

Welcome to the fifty-fourth episode of the Not A Cast, entitled: “Waking the Drogo: An Analysis of AGOT, Daenerys VI,” in which if you come at the khaleesi, you best not miss.

This episode is brought to you by our Small Council: Hand of the King WolfmanZack, Grand Maester Timothy W, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard Mark N. Lord Travis, Master of Ships and Warden of the Waves, Ser Keith J, Master of Whisperers, Lord Philip the Merciful, Master of Laws, Jancy O, Lady Commander of the Night’s Watch, Lord Gene Master of Coin, Archmaester June, Healer of the Lesser Poxes, Ragged Michael, Warden of the North, Nelson the Hammer, Prince of Dragonstone, Scarlett the Other Red Woman and Mistress of Whisperers and our two newest members of the small council: Lord Baby the Onion Baby and Lord Blackheart the Defiant, Master of Zorse! Thank you councillors very much! And welcome to Lord Baby the Onion Baby and Lord Blackheart! Those are helluva names, gentlemen!

Spoiler warning: All published books - 5 novels, 3 Dunk and Egg novellas, histories, interviews, TWOW sample chapters, as well as Game of Thrones the TV show. Anything and everything!

Question

We’ll be taking a two-week break as a result of a work trip I’ll be undertaking, but rest assured, we’ll be back for Catelyn’s eight chapter (remember Catelyn who BTW has only done one thing wrong in her entire life?) on March 25th with our patreon-only episode all about our predictions for Game of Thrones, Season 8 coming out the same week as Catelyn VIII for all $5/above month patrons coming out that 

Ser Jacob RW asks:

What's your guy's opinion of Jorah Mormont and where do you see his path leading to in future books? Personally I see him a "nice guy" who learned almost nothing from his exile. Honestly he has not even the slightest bit of remorse for his crimes. It's as if him becoming a slave himself hasn't even woken him up. I also find it hard to believe Dany will ever accept him back. I also get the feeling he will live through the battle of fire though. Obviously, I'm clueless as to where he will go, what are your thoughts? Also thank you for the amazing podcast, it is always something to look forward to while I deliver pizza. Keep up the excellent work!

Synopsis

Daenerys is in A Game of Thrones. I know. I forgot too.

And what better way to start a Dany chapter with Drogo having just nutted, amirite?

So, Dany and Drogo have just finished doing the nasty, and Drogo rises from his sleeping mats, looking like a mayun with muscles and scars and of course ... a moist dick. But oddly, he’s not super happy. And why isn’t he happy? 

The stallion who mounts the world has no need of iron chairs.

Ah, it seems Dany had brought “the subject” up again: you know the one, right? The let’s cross the Narrow Sea and invade Westeros subject. That one. Dany brings up the point that the stallion who mounts the world is supposed to ride to the ends of the earth, but Drogo counters that the world ends at the Narrow Sea. But wait, Drogo, we could get a bunch of ships and sail to Westeros! But no. The conversation is over. 

Drogo’s off to go hunting. And he’s hunting the most dangerous game: the Lhazarene! Oh shit. No, that’s next chapter. He’s off to hunt the great white lion of the plains. Drogo wasn’t scared of lions or any other animals, but salt water was something else. It was poison water in Dothraki parlance. And while Drogo was made of braver stock than the average Dothraki khal, he shared the Dothraki cultural superstition against salt water.

With Drogo gone, Dany asks for her handmaids to come wash her. They do so, and then she summons Jorah Mormont. Jorah, because he’s not at all a lovesick puppy for Daenerys, who again is 13 while Jorah is 40+, is there in a heartbeat. Dany tells Jorah that he needs to communicate to Drogo that they need to go west to the Seven Kingdoms, not east to the lands around the Jade Sea. Ah, well, you see, Dany, Drogo doesn’t really conceive of Westeros:

The khal has never seen the Seven Kingdoms. They are nothing to him. If he thinks of them at all, no doubt he thinks of islands, a few small cities clinging to rocks in the manner of Lorath or Lys, surrounded by stormy seas. The riches of the east must seem a more tempting prospect.

Yeah, that’s great and all, but he has to go west. Yeah, they’ll go home, Jorah promises. But don’t fuck up the way that Viserys did. And on the topic of “home” for Daenerys, what exactly was her home? She’d never seen Westeros. She only knew her “home” from the stories that Viserys has told her. And her memories of her other home: the house with the red door (again, in Braavos) were fading too. But Vaes Dothrak didn’t seem much like home either. 

When she looked at the crones of the dosh khaleen, was she looking at her future?

Sometimes, it’s the small places that George does his best work, and that paragraph is just oozing pathos, man. 

Well, Jorah seems to sense Dany’s sadness. So, to cheer her up, he tells that a great caravan has arrived in Vaes Dothrak, and they should all go off to visit the entirely assassin-free caravan to see if Illyrio sent some correspondence their way. Well, Dany’s all about that now. You could never tell what treasure the traders might bring this time. Mm-hm.

So, Dany has Irri prepare a litter, and then they’re off to the market. And it’s a pleasant trip with Dany, her protectors and her handmaids all riding over there. And the sun is out on a cloudless day, and the smells of earth and grass are about. It’s just the best assassin-free day you can imagine. But of course, they do pass by the stolen gods and idols the Dothraki brought back to Vaes Dothrak. And Dany wonders if the gods of burned cities could still answer prayers.

But besides that, Dany’s still thinking about her conception of home. She might come to love this place, but she was the blood of the dragon, a khaleesi with a strong husband, swift horse, warriors to protect her. She could see herself as part of the dosh khaleen -- if only she wasn’t a dragon.

With Viserys gone, Daenerys was the last, the very last. She was the seed of kings and conquerors, and so too, the child inside her. She must not forget.

But now at the Western Market, Daenerys is engulfed by the sights: warrens of mud-baked brick, animal pens, whitewashed drinking halls and inside the square itself: stalls and aisles, awnings of woven grass with a hundred merchants and traders plying their wares.

Of interest though, this place wasn’t like the merchant stalls Dany remembered from the other free cities. Here, the caravans came to Vaes Dothrak not to sell to the Dothraki but rather to trade with other merchants. And so long as everyone observed Dothraki laws and customs, no one would meet the business end of the Dothraki.

But to add a bit more worldbuilding to it all, Dany liked the eastern market too. It was there that she ate tree eggs, locust pie and green noodles. She also listened to spellsingers, watched manticores, elephants and zorses in cages. And then there was all the people: the Asshai’i, Qartheen, the bright-eyed men of Yi Ti in monkey-tail hats, warrior maids from cities in the east. And even Shadow Men who covered their arms and legs and chests with tattoos and hid behind masks. All of that was great and wondrous, but the western market smelled like home.

Irri and Jhiqui help Dany down from her litter, and she pokes about taking in all the sights and smells of the western market. Meanwhile, caravan guards mill about ensuring that the market remains assassination-free. As a girl, Daenerys loved to play in the bazaar. She felt alive when she did so. And she loved looking at all the beautiful items, but she rarely had the money to purchase anything -- that is save for an occasional sausage now and again. But hey, maybe we could get some honeyfingers, some cakes, right Jorah?

Uh, yeah. Maybe later.

If you would pardon me for a time, I will seek out the captain and see if he has letters for us.

Oh, well then, Dany will accompany Jorah. Ahhh, yeah. No, Jorah says. As a result of being above suspicion, Jorah will need to go alone.

Curious, Dany, Emmett and I all say at the same time. 

Dany thinks that maybe he’s off to seek out a sex worker. Some men were reticent to explain that type of rationale -- especially to a woman. So, Dany shrugs Jorah off and goes exploring. And lo and behold, but she comes across sausages! She tries one, and she enjoys it, but it tastes different. Ah, well, as to that, the reason why they taste differently is that these sausages were made from horsemeat. Dany is disappointed but her entourage start wolfing sausages down. When Rakharo belches, Dany laughs, and Irri says that it’s good to hear her laugh. She hasn’t laughed since Viserys got his ass crowned.

They stroll about the market for half the morning, buying a feathered Summer Islander cloaks, looks on as a birdseller shows Dany a bird who can say her name. She buys scented oils that reminds her of the House with the Red Door. When Dany notices Doreah looking at a fertility charm, she buys it for her and thinks maybe she should get something for Irri and Jhiqui.

It’s a wonderful, assassination-free day, and how better to top off such a day than to enjoy a cup of poison-free wine, right? Well, wouldn’t you know it but such an opportunity presents itself as Dany & company round the corner and see a wine merchant calling out that he’s got all sorts of wondrous wines for sale. He calls out his wares, and Dany stops at his stall. The wineseller asks if Dany would like a taste -- maybe a Dornish red? It was so good, Dany might even name her firstborn after him.

Ah, well, he has a name. His is the song … wait, wrong Dany chapter. Ahem. Well, Dany would take a taste, she responds in Valyrian. Dany sees the wineseller taking notice of her, and he asks if she’s Tyroshi. Nah, not Tyroshi. Westerosi. Doreah steps in to announce Dany as well, Dany.

The wineseller bends the knee to Daenerys. Dany tells him to rise, and then the wineseller says that he has a super wine in the back that she definitely needs to drink a lot of. It’s an Arbor Red, of course. And he’ll give her a whole cask. Just, y’know, go drink it back at your tent while the wineseller doesn't try to run like hell away.

Well, Dany is honored by this “gift”, but the honor is all the wineseller’s. Mm-hm. Dany will take the wine cask back and share it with Khal Drogo and …

No.

Who said that? It’s Jorah, and he’s pissed. He tells Aggo to put down the cask. Dany asks if something is wrong. And Jorah responds that he’s thirsty and wants a drink right now. The wineseller tries to dodge, saying that the wine isn’t meant for some idiot like Jorah. But Jorah moves close to the wineseller and tells him if he doesn’t open the goddamn thing, he’s going to crack it over his head. And at that the wineseller finally relents, takes up his hammer and knocks the plug from the cask. Jorah orders him to pour as Dany’s khas close in from around him.

It would be a crime to drink this rich a wine without letting it breathe.

No, you better fuckin’ pour, Dany tells the wineseller. So, the wineseller pours two small thimbles, handing one to Jorah:

Sweet, isn’t it? Can you smell the fruit, ser? The perfume of the Arbor. Taste it my lord, and tell me it isn’t the finest, richest wine that’s ever touched your tongue.

Interesting phrasing. We should talk about that, Emmett! No, u, Jorah says. But the wineseller dodges yet again, saying that it’s a pour wine merchant who drinks his own wine. But then Dany tells him to drink up or he’ll be force-fed. 

So, the wineseller shrugs, reaches for his cup and then grabs the cask instead and throws it at Dany with both hands. Jorah pushes Dany out of the way. Dany, stumbles and starts to fall, but Doreah catches her by the arm and wrenches her backwards, so she falls on her legs, not her pregnant belly.

The wineseller tries running away, but then Jhogo takes out his whip and snaps it after the would-be assassin. The whip catches and then coils around his leg. The wineseller eats shit immediately. A dozen caravan guards come running up to the scene. The captain orders the wineseller taken away to await Khal Drogo’s pleasure, and then he gifts the rest of the wineseller’s wares to Dany as a form of apology.

Dany is helped up by Doreah and Jhiqui, and she turns to Jorah:

How did you know? How?

I did not know, Khaleesi, not until the man refused to drink, but once I read Magister Illyrio’s letter, I feared the worst.

Jorah tells Dany that they should really talk about that in a private setting. So, they carry Dany back to her tent in Vaes Dothrak. And as she’s carried, she thinks that she now knows fear again: something she thought she was free from after Viserys. And she wasn’t just scared for herself. She had her baby to consider. So, she whispers to him:

You are the blood of the dragon, and the dragon does not fear.

At last, they reach the tent, and Dany orders everyone but Jorah to leave. When everyone is gone, Dany tells Jorah to tell her what’s happened. And Jorah proceeds to reveal that there’s a letter from Illyrio to Visers warning him that Robert Baratheon has sent out an offer:

Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for your death, or your brother’s.

Dany chokes back a half-sob/half-cry. Then, Robert owes Khal Drogo a lordship. Dany hugs herself and asks whether the warrant was only for her. You and the child, Jorah says. Dany decides not to weep and thinks that now the usurper has woken the dragon for real. And then her eyes go to her dragon eggs as the light and heat play across their scales.

And suddenly, she’s caught up in emotion borne of madness or wisdom.

Ser Jorah, light the brazier.

Jorah looks at Dany like she’s crazy, but he does as he’s commanded. When the coals were burning, Dany finally kicked Jorah out of the room and grabbed the eggs with both hands. Against echoes in her own mind of how this is madness and how this will only crack the eggs and make them burn. But she pushes the eggs into the coals anyways.

The scales turn bright as they drank in the heat. Flames lick across the stone. Dany steps back, her breath in her throat. She watches as the coals burn and then cool, until the coals were ashes. And nothing happens.

Your brother Rhaegar was the last dragon, Ser Jorah had said. What had she expected? A thousand thousand years ago they had been alive, but now they were only pretty rocks. They could not make a dragon. A dragon was air and fire. Living flesh, not dead stone.

By the time Drogo returns, the brazier was cold. And Khal Drogo is in a great mood, having killed a great white lion and announcing his plans to make a pelt of it for Dany. That is, he was in a good mood until Dany told him what happened. Then Drogo grew quiet.

Jorah puts in that this poisoner was only the first, but he won’t be the last. And when Drogo hears that, he says that the wineseller/poisoner should have run after Dany instead of run away from her. He offers any horse Jorah or Jhogo would want save for his and Dany’s. And then he thunders a promise to his unborn son Rhaego that … of course, I’m going to read in full:

"And to Rhaego son of Drogo, the stallion who will mount the world, to him I also pledge a gift. To him I will give this iron chair his mother's father sat in. I will give him Seven Kingdoms. I, Drogo, khal, will do this thing." His voice rose, and he lifted his fist to the sky. "I will take my khalasar west to where the world ends, and ride the wooden horses across the black salt water as no khal has done before. I will kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses. I will rape their women, take their children as slaves, and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak to bow down beneath the Mother of Mountains. This I vow, I, Drogo son of Bharbo. This I swear before the Mother of Mountains, as the stars look down in witness."

Drogo’s khalasar rode from Vaes Dothrak two days later, heading south and west. Chained at throat and wrists and then tied to the back of Dany’s horse, the wineseller struggles along, running after her. 

No harm would come to him … so long as he kept up.

And that is AGOT, Daenerys VI. And we are finally leaving Vaes Dothrak until TWOW. And this is the start of where Dany’s chapters pick up in intensity with their interchanging action, horror and pathos sequences -- all leading to the fire made flesh and the birth of the dragons. 

Of interest to those interested in the meta side of ASOIAF, GRRM published a novella of Dany’s AGOT chapters for Asimov’s Science Fiction magazine in July 1996 -- a month before the publication of AGOT. Intriguingly, as my friend jen_snow discovered when she found the original novella, AGOT, Daenerys VI was not included among the chapters that GRRM published in the magazine. Now, given that the novella was published only one month prior to AGOT, I think it’s fair to conclude that GRRM had written this chapter, but I wonder whether this was a late addition to AGOT -- too late for the magazine. Perhaps GRRM thought he hadn’t sold the idea that Viserys’ crowning would bestir Drogo to ride for the Lhazarene and Westeros and wanted to have some payoff to the poison plot from Eddard VIII.

That said, this chapter is an oddity for me: I liked this chapter for what it does for Dany’s character and her conflict over her identity, but the plot-purpose of getting the Dothraki moving feels mayyyyyyyyybe a bit artificial.

What did you think, Emmett?

Depth

Dany’s POV really takes over the third act of AGOT in a lot of ways. The pace ramps up dramatically as we go from sedate daily routine in Vaes Dothrak for most of this chapter to assassination, warmongering, massacres, blood magic, death and decay and dragons. It’s ridiculously exhilarating on the whole, but here in Dany VI, it’s a little ruthless in its momentum toward the end. That said, there are plenty of great touches to admire and discuss here!

This chapter feels reminiscent of Bran V to me in that we have the pathos inherent, a glorious, beautiful day and then it all goes to hell. It’s like that old murphy’s law of combat: if your attack is going really well, it’s probably an ambush. In ASOIAF, if your chapter starts well, it’s probably going to end badly. But like I said in my synopsis, the plot points here aren’t my favorite in the book. Instead, I think distinguishes this chapter a bit is the consistent thru-theme of Dany’s dual/conflicting Dothraki/Targaryen identities. Even better for me, her attempt to disassociate herself with her identity as a khaleesi is tied up in her longing to go home to Westeros -- a home that she’s never seen. And all the while, her fading memories of the House with the Red Door in Braavos overshadow her identity conflict. 

• East or west?
  • The identity struggle to which you allude is the central tension of this chapter, resolved (for now…) violently at its end by the assassination attempt and Drogo’s reaction to it
  • From the start, Dany is trying to root herself in a suddenly Viserys-less world, trying to decide who she is and where she belongs now as the last dragon
  • She pushes Drogo to invade in order to make her brother’s story real and give his life and death some meaning
  • Drogo refuses not out of logistical concerns (I’m sure he thinks he could take the Seven Kingdoms if he felt like it) but for cultural reasons
  • He loathes the “poison water” and thinks of Westeros as a backwater
  • So while Dany has assimilated far better than Viserys, she’s running up against some obstacles, and Jorah (who’s been here longer) is there to point them out
  • What does he offer as an escape? Vaes Dothrak’s marketplace, which acts as a perfect externalization of Dany’s internal struggle
  • Just like her, we see the divide between east and west in the two markets
  • And while she loves the sights and sounds and smells of the Eastern Market, the Western Market is home
  • But! GRRM doesn’t just mean Westeros by home--the Western Market reminds Dany of the Free Cities where she actually grew up
  • Yet it’s also where we see the Dothraki around her most humanized!
  • This all gets at the instability and multiplicity of Dany’s identity, which will only continue to grow as a theme as we proceed through the series
• You can’t go home again
  • Beneath the big-picture movements of plot and setting, Dany’s identity conflict also plays out personally. Time for that sadness you were talking about!
  • She’s looking for home and fears she will lack it forever, a theme GRRM comes back to again and again in her story
  • Viserys abused her and sold her and died threatening her, but he was also an anchor she now lacks
  • She wants to hear Valyrian again rather than think about joining the dosh khaleen
  • She is trying to restore that lost dream, but can’t, as we see with the meataphor (get it??) of the sausages
  • Everything changes, gods and heroes are but trash for the Dothraki to collect, and Dany will cross the world trying to get something back that’s long gone
  • That’s why the dead kids keep popping up in her story: they are her. 
  • What really lends this poignancy is the sense that she could be happy turning her back on it all if only “I were not the blood of dragon,” which is framed as a burden 
  • Family, security, good food, sunlight on her face...this is what life ought to be, not trying to be the hero, not trying to climb some tall tower for power or vengeance
• Assassination nation
  • No more of that maudlin stuff, on to the exciting setpiece of the chapter!
  • The assassination attempt furthers the cultural themes, rather than abandoning them as window dressing
  • The merchant takes her first for a Dothraki, then a Tyroshi, before learning that she was born in Westeros--it’s her life story told backwards
  • She is pleased to accept the wine because Drogo developed a taste for the Free Cities, again nodding to the many cultures swirling around her
  • All of which is to say that when he tries to kill her, it’s as if home itself has lashed out at her--where she went for comfort, she found only more death waiting for her
  • This leads her to contemplate waking the dragons rather than drowning in tears--the sorrow-rage dichotomy we see with a lot of female characters
  • Instead, she wakes the Drogo! One more cultural signpost with the gifts of horses
  • And then, the payoff: Drogo’s war speech
  • Very Conan-esque, but in context, this demonstrates how self-sabotaging Robert’s assassination attempt was
  • He created an invasion that might not have happened otherwise
  • And there’s very little Return of the Rightful Heir joy at chapter’s end, because what Drogo is describing is a clusterfuck of war crimes that would desolate Westeros
  • This is especially pointed in the context of Westerosi armies gearing up for war; are they any better? More on this comparison in Dany VII! 

Foreshadowing/Groundwork

We’ve seen Dany’s supernatural connection to her eggs before in Dany III, and we’ll see it again in Dany IX before they hatch in Dany X. You can see GRRM working overtime to try and keep the dragon eggs in our mind so the eventual miracle is more “fuck yes” than “wait what,” but also distracting us with political and personal affairs so as to not give the game away. If the eggs were never brought up between the wedding and the pyre, it wouldn’t feel earned; if Dany was focused on the eggs and explicitly trying to wake them, we wouldn’t be surprised when she did.

The hrakkar or white lion that Drogo kills and promises to make into a cloak from its skin actually happens! Our first reference to it comes in ACOK, Daenerys I where her handmaids cloak her in the lion skin after her hair burns away. And she holds onto the cloak through ACOK, ASOS and on into ADWD where it’s last seen slipping away from her shoulders prior to her doing the nasty with Daario. There’s a fantastic piece of artwork by Marco Feittosa that we’ll link in the show notes for all our patrons:

Arbor Gold/Wine = lies. One of the more intriguing theories that’s come about since the publication is the idea that Arbor Red/Arbor Gold = lies/falsehoods. First popularized by westeros.org user Apple Martini, the theory goes something to the tune of that whenever arbor gold or arbor red is brought up in the narrative, it usually indicates falsehood or deception. Apple Martini gives a number of examples in her OP such as Wyman’s declaration to wash down Frey Pies with Arbor Gold or Littlefinger telling Sansa to serve Lord Nestor Royce “lies and arbor gold” on what really happened to Lysa Tully. 

Here though, the poisoned wine is in a cask of Arbor Red. So, in this case, the arbor red as an exquisite vintage of wine disguises its true purpose: the poison and kill Daenerys Targaryen and the unborn Rhaego.

Theory/Discussion

Unraveling this phase of the Varys-Illyrio conspiracy.

Let’s dial all the way back to AGOT, Arya III. There, Arya eavesdrops on Varys and Illyrio as they discuss what’s going on in Westeros and Essos. One of the topics that Illyrio brings up is the pregnancy of Daenerys and her pregnancy:

"Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages." 

This presented a major problem for Varys and Illyrio’s plans. They know that war is coming soon to Westeros, and the Dothraki are taking their damn time. So Varys tells Illyrio that:

“Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever." (AGOT, Arya III)

And given the Blackfyre retcon we’ve talked about at length previously, and if you believe the plan as presented by Tristan Rivers to the Golden Company in ADWD, here’s what was in the works:

“First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister.”

Of course, whether that was the actual plan is up for debate! But we talked about this at some length back in our theory discussion on Arya III. So, go ahead and give that one a re-listen if you’d like.

Regardless of which plan was in play, Varys and Illyrio had to deal with a significant problem: how to align the timeline so that Viserys + the Dothraki (or Viserys + Dothraki + Aegon + the Golden Company) land in Westeros as the various powers in Westeros were fighting each other? The answer: a true or false assassination attempt on Daenerys! 

Eddard VIII has Robert ordering the assassination of Viserys after, of course, Varys brings the information to Robert, and then Varys does his whole we must do vile, machiavellian things for the good of many bit before finally suggesting poisoning Daenerys with the Tears of Lys. 

So, combining what we know from Arya III with what Varys says in council session in Eddard VIII, I think that we can both agree that what we have at work is Varys and Illyrio realizing they have to move the timeline of the Dothraki invasion up, Varys bringing the intel to Robert and then likely after the council session, sending Illyrio back to Pentos with Robert’s order and instructions to hire an assassin. And then Illyrio hired an assassin posing as a wineseller or wineseller posing as an assassin to go knock off Viserys, Daenerys and Rhaego. 

But were those the instructions that Varys gave?

I’m of the mind that prior to Illyrio and Varys learning that Viserys was dead and prior to the birthing of the dragons, the plot to assassinate Daenerys was real, but Emmett, I believe you’re of a mind that it wasn’t? 

Points For:

• My read is that the letter that Illyrio sends to Jorah was supposed to be read to Viserys and Drogo after the death of Daenerys. Illyrio doesn’t know that Viserys is dead when he dispatches the wineseller. So, the plot reads as a means of jumpstarting the Dothraki invasion. It’s only Jorah’s lovesick quick-wittedness to recognize that with Viserys dead, he had to save Dany.  
• At the time of the attack, Daenerys was an expendable piece, as Illyrio all-but-says in ADWD to Tyrion:
  
  “If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords." (ADWD, Tyrion II)
• This will be an odd one, but the way the wineseller talks to Jorah can be read as a personal appeal to Jorah and his desire for home: Sweet, isn’t it? Can you smell the fruit, ser? The perfume of the Arbor. Taste it my lord, and tell me it isn’t the finest, richest wine that’s ever touched your tongue.
  • In this case, the sweetness offered sort-reads like a message from Varys to Jorah: do your fucking job, and you’ll get your heart’s sweetest desire: a pardon, home.

Points Against:

• A failed attempt on Dany’s life is more likely to result in a Dothraki invasion of Westeros than a successful one
• If Dany dies, taking Rhaego with her, what’s Drogo fighting for? Revenge, maybe, but then he’d just burn the Seven Kingdoms down rather than hand them to a Targaryen
• He’s unlikely to genuinely be out to sit Viserys on the Iron Throne, as we’ve said before
• Drogo’s motivation to invade is instead giving Rhaego “his grandfather’s seat” 
• Jorah is still reporting to Varys and Illyrio as of Qarth
• The Merchant Captain knows what’s happening without being told, suggesting a setup
• Illyrio could be referring to an attempt on Dany’s life, but “I did not think she would survive” sounds more passive--an assumption of weakness, rather than active malice
• Most of all: this assassin sucks at his job. I find it hard to believe that Varys the Spider and Illyrio “Monger w/Cheese” Mopatis couldn’t find a better hired gun across two continents if they were really out to kill Dany. The wineseller seems like a patsy to me
• That’s classic Varys, after all--the mummer’s farce!

Conclusion

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