The NotACast Holiday Special Episode: "How Much of TWOW/ADOS Did GAME OF THRONES spoil?" featuring Special Guest Joanna Robinson! SHOW NOTES!

Intro

Hello and welcome to a very, very, very special Not A Cast podcast, the podcast that usually goes through through A Song of Ice and Fire one chapter a week and does a monthly patreon-only episode for all $5/above patrons. But this here is something special. For behold, we bring you tidings of great joy which is to all people. 

I’m one of your hosts, Jeff, better known as BryndenBFish. 

And I’m your other host, Emmett, better known as PoorQuentyn. 

Welcome to our first-ever holiday special episode entitled: “How much of The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring did Game of Thrones Spoil?” in which Joanna, Emmett and I will analyze one of the most hotly-discussed topics in all …

Wait, wait, wait. Joanna is here!? 

Yes, she is! We are thrilled that Senior Vanity Fair correspondent, frequent podcaster of so many fantastic podcasts Joanna Robinson joins us today! Hi Joanna!

Joanna introduces herself

Emmett response to Joanna, etc.

Spoiler warning: All published books - 5 novels, 3 Dunk and Egg novellas, histories, interviews, TWOW sample chapters, as well as Game of Thrones the TV show. Anything and everything!

Now just for a quick advertisement plug: normally, this is the type of monthly episode you’d be getting on our patreon for only $5/above a month. But we wanted to do something special for the holiday season for all of our listeners. You all have made our year terrific, and we wanted to do this episode as our thanks to you all. And at the same time, we understand that not all of you want or are able to join our patreon, and that’s totally fine! But if you’d like to join up and see similar episodes as this one, check us out at patreon.com/NotACastASOIAF. 

Yeah. If you’ve sat there thinking that we don’t talk nearly enough about the Baratheon Brothers (but especially Stannis), Volantis, Barristan or The Winds Winter, or Fire and Blood on social media, come on over.

But enough about patreon. This is our holiday gift to you all. So, let’s delve into it.

Icebreaker

Did Game of Thrones spoil Winds or Dream? 

Jeff: IMO, there’s four options

• Option 1: Most of what we see in GoT will occur in the books.
• Option 2: GoT spoiled some of the plot for TWOW/ADOS
• Option 3: There are a few things they spoiled, but it wasn't much.
• Option 4: They spoiled nothing or very little beyond what they've explicitly confirmed as happening in the books

I’m of a divided mind on which one is correct, but in broad strokes, I think Season 6 spoiled a few things, but it wasn’t much. Season 7 spoiled some of the plot for the end of TWOW and start of ADOS and Season 8 will likely mirror the endstates and fates GRRM has planned for ADOS. Now the plot pathways that the show charts to get to those endstates and fates will be different. I mean, shit, George, the showrunners and my wife who has never read the books or watched the show says as much. And I would never disagree with my wife. 

Emmett: I don’t think we can trace much of a linear relationship at this point, because as George has said, small changes have ripple effects. I think there are major isolated moments that will carry over: R+L=J, the J-man coming back and being crowned, Cersei going full Aerys (or trying to, anyway), Stannis burning Shireen, “hold the door,” (as we’ll get into a little later) and Sansa gloriously bringing down Littlefinger. Can’t wait to read that one in particular. 

The sheer amount of storylines either reduced or left out by the show, however, leaves plenty of room for surprises, and these storylines intersect with the big dogs. It’s not just that we’ll get more details about Young Griff’s background in TWOW--it’s that his very existence will alter Dany and Cersei’s storylines substantially from what they are in seasons 6 and 7. It’s not just that book-Euron is a tripping sorcerer far removed from his show-self--it’s that he has the potential to contribute hugely to the magical shenanigans in a way the show was probably never equipped to handle (logistically or tonally). I think the experience of reading TWOW, should we ever be so lucky, will not be lesser for GoT but just different than it would’ve been otherwise.

Joanna:

Background

Since Game of Thrones, Season 5, ASOIAF fans have asked how much of TWOW would be spoiled by the show. George RR Martin addressed this in his infamous notablog post in early 2016:

Will the show 'spoil' the novels?

Maybe. Yes and no. - GRRM, notablog, Last Year: Winds, 1/2/2016

Given that GRRM attempted and failed to beat Season 6 by publishing TWOW before the season aired and now that we've had the opportunity to digest the entirety of Seasons 6 and 7, we might be able to analyze and theorize on what Game of Thrones actually spoiled. And here, we thought to let Joanna, a chained and true archmaester who has earned the tinfoil ring in her maester’s collar for all things Game of Thrones walk us through the major events that occur in the later seasons that George RR Martin, David Benioff and Dan Weiss or people in the know have confirmed will occur in the books.

So, Joanna, take us away! 

First, let's discuss future plot points from TWOW confirmed by the show. While there is considerable debate about these two points, David Benioff and Dan Weiss and a director have stated that three events that occurred in seasons 5, 6 and 7 will occur in ASOIAF. They are:

• Stannis will burn Shireen. - Game of Thrones Season 5: Inside the Episode #9
• George told D&D that Melisandre was a few centuries old.
  • Similarly, the actor who played Maester Cressen, Oliver Ford Davies, told journalists in 2013 that, according to van Houten, Melisandre is “400 years old.” She offered that fact up by way of explaining why her character survived poison in Season 2, Episode 1, and his character croaked.
• Hodor's name derived from "Hold the Door." - Game of Thrones Season 6: Inside the Episode #5
• Director Alan Taylor told Deadline while they were filming S01 in 2010 that George RR Martin told him: "the convergence of Jon and Dany were sort of the point of the series."

More generally, back in 2013, George RR Martin met with David Benioff and Dan Weiss how ASOIAF ends. Additionally, GRRM also revealed one more shocking event to the showrunners that is set to occur in the endgame.

Now, it should be noted that in isolation, the confirmed events that we saw in GoT will occur in the books. However, the context and sequence of events leading up to these events will likely be different in ASOIAF (cough, cough Stannis burning Shireen).

Major Events/Reveals in Seasons 4-7

Now that we have the certainties determined, we move towards more speculation territory. Did Game of Thrones spoil anything for the future of TWOW that we didn't already know from sample chapters or things that George has said? Let's review some of the major reveals/events of the seasons that have not occurred in the books yet (and haven't been revealed by D&D as will be occurring in the books):

Season 4

• Jojen Reed dies
• The White Walkers take Craster’s male children and transform them into White Walkers

Season 5

• Ramsay Bolton defeats Stannis Baratheon in battle outside of Winterfell
• Barristan Selmy is murdered by the Sons of the Harpy

Season 6

• Doran Martell, Trystane Martell and Areo Hotah killed by the Sand Snakes (no) 
• Daenerys is taken captive by the Dothraki (yes) 
• Roose Bolton is murdered by Ramsay (sure) 
• Jon Snow resurrected by Melisandre (yes/the burning?) 
• Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter (yes)
• Jon Snow abandons the NW, Dolorous Edd becomes Lord Commander of the NW (yes and no)
• Daenerys gains a giant khalasar, burns khals (yes and no)
• The origin of the White Walkers was men that the Children of the Forest transformed (sure) 
• The Three-Eyed Raven dies (sure) 
• Bran flees Bloodraven's Cave after White Walker attack, is saved by Coldhands who is Benjen (NO) 
• Sandor Clegane is alive (yes)
• Cersei Lannister blows up Baelor's Sept, kills Tyrells, High Sparrow (NO—though she does start a fire)
• Tommen commits suicide (he’s a baby! no!) 
• Daenerys sails with Ironborn for Westeros, allies with Dorne/Tyrells (yes and no)
• Ramsay/Jon battle outside of Winterfell, Vale Knights arrive in the North, defeat Boltons (DIREWOLVES VS HOUNDS—dunno about the Vale)
• Rickon, Shaggydog and Summer die (N.O.)
• Ramsay is killed by his dogs. (sure!) 
• Daenerys arrives back in Meereen to destroy slave fleet (oh gosh sure) 
• Jon is crowned King in the North (yes) 
• Arya kills the waif, abandons the Faceless Men and departs Braavos as Arya Stark (yes and no)
• Arya kills Walder Frey (sure!) 
• Beric is alive, still leading the Brotherhood without Banners (I mean...no) 
• Jon Snow's mother is revealed to be Lyanna Stark. (duh) 

Season 7

• Arya murders the rest of House Frey
• Bran and Meera get south of the Wall
• Jon forgives houses who fought with the Boltons
• Daenerys lands on and seizes Dragonstone
• Cersei and Euron make a betrothal alliance.
• Euron destroys half the Iron/Dornish/Tyrell fleets in a naval battle
• Ellaria, Nymeria, Taena and Obara are killed in battle against Euron or murdered by Cersei
• The Iron Bank agrees to loan money to Cersei
• Jon attempts to make common cause with Daenerys, initially refusing to bend the knee to her.
• The Unsullied take Casterly Rock, but Euron burns the remainder of the Targaryen fleet
• Lannisters take Highgarden from the Tyrells
• Olenna Tyrell reveals to Jaime that she murdered Joffrey, drinks poison, dies
• Daenerys and the Dothraki attack the Lannister/Tarly army returning from Highgarden, defeat them in battle
• Randyll and Dickon Tarly are burnidated.
• Drogon is wounded in battle
• Jon and a party go north of the Wall to capture a wight. They capture a wight. (UGH)(Hard same)
• Thoros dies
• Viserion dies and is resurrected a wight-dragon
• Benjen dies for good
• Jon swears allegiance to Daenerys Targaryen
• The warring factions meet and agree to a truce to deal with the threat of the White Walkers
• Cersei, though, plans betrayal and has hired the Golden Company
• Jaime abandons Cersei, heads north
• Daenerys and Jon bang on a boat
• Rhaegar is revealed as Jon's father
• Rhaegar got an annulment from his wife Elia and married Lyanna
• The White Walkers assault the Wall. The Night King uses White Walker Viserion to burn down the Wall. They advance south into Westeros

Unpacking It

Now... looking at the bullet-points, it seems like the show has spoiled a significant amount of the books. Many of the points seem in keeping with the direction that the books are going. However, it's possible that many of these events won't happen in the books or will have a completely different set of circumstances leading up to them.

However, just in us reciting all those reveals that we saw in Game of Thrones that may unfold in the book series, it’s a lot! So, I figure we would pick our three favorite topics to talk about and discuss them in some depth and then talk about the one event which will 100% absolutely happen in both books and show, and you’re ugly and stupid if you think otherwise.

Jeff: The Battle of Ice that George RR Martin plans between Stannis and the Freys/Boltons was reimagined for Jon to take down the Boltons in the show. As for why that is …

There’s been a lot of theorizing that D&D hate Stannis or some such. I would agree to the extent that maybe they didn’t quite understand Stannis from the novels. Or more generously: they reinterpreted Stannis to fit the character they needed for the show.

However, I think a major change in the show was that the show-writers decided to cut Stannis Baratheon’s arc short. Now why D&D might have done this has been a source of considerable debate in the fandom. However, the major reason why, in my mind, is that when they met with GRRM in 2013 and realized the scope of what Martin has planned for the remaining two novels in ASOIAF, they realized they had to trim the plot down to fit in 7-8 seasons.

And one of those things they decided to trim down was Stannis’ arc. And I understand why -- even as a Stannerman! They didn’t have enough space for Stannis’ plot and the main story (Our heroes vs the White Walkers), but I also see where still having Stannis around makes for a complicated story for Jon Snow’s rise as King in the North and the complications that will flow between two Kings in the North in the books.

So, the solution that D&D decided on was that Stannis would die in the Battle of Winterfell, and they gave Stannis’ arc (recruiting northern houses, marching on Winterfell, a cavalry charge that saves the day via the Manderlys in the book, the Vale knights in the show) to Jon Snow in the form of the Battle of the Bastards (an episode that Emmett and I will talk about someday on patreon!)  

Emmett: One of the clear highlights of Season 7 was the Field of Fire 2.0, battle of the food trucks, whatever you wanna call it when Dany went full “I love the smell of napalm in the morning” on Jaime’s men. I think we are going to see a version of this in the books...but one with considerably more military might on the anti-Dany side. Also, that anti-Dany side won’t be Lannisters, but rather supporters of her ostensible nephew, King Aegon Targaryen, Sixth of His Name.

We know that Season 8 will feature Cersei’s plans to use the Golden Company to secure her rule. As much as Lannisters love their gold, the sellswords are not backing Cersei but rather Young Griff in the books, and are invading Westeros to try and *topple* the Lannisters, not support them. Looking at Arianne’s released TWOW chapters and Varys’ speech to Kevan at the end of ADWD, I think Team Aegon will succeed at this goal. Dorne is a natural ally, the High Sparrow seems like one too (what with YG being trained by a septa, and not being one of those inconvenient incest-baby Targs), and the captains of the Golden Company say they have “friends in the Reach” that will turn on the Tyrells. 

And who might those friends in the Reach be? Why, our boy Jeff has theorized (as have others) that first and foremost among them will be our least favorite father south of the Wall: Randyll Tarly, he who was present at said field of fire in the show and was burnt to a crisp (along with his son and heir Dickon) by a victorious Dany afterwards. So now in TWOW, you’ve got Young Griff crowned, Arianne probably his queen, the crowds cheering for the “mummer’s dragon” just as in Dany’s visions…

...but that part of her visions was called “slayer of lies,” and given the darker turn Dany took both at the end of ADWD and in Seasons 6 and 7 (not to mention the bitter vengeful Tyrion whispering in her ear), I think she’s going to consider Young Griff a usurper, probably not even her real nephew, and come for him with fire and blood. So when Dany and the Dothraki ride into battle in the books, they’ll be up against the most battle-ready members of Team Aegon: the Golden Company, backed up by Randyll Tarly as in the show. Elephants v. dragons! The Golden Company’s advanced precision and skills up against Dothraki screamers’ shock and awe! If anything, it’s gonna be even more metal than what we saw in the show. 

Joanna:

-Dorne—part of the Aegon plot. 

-Three dragon riders—who are they? 

-Jaime and Brienne. Convinced Jaime’s story is about this and not about Cersei. 

R+L=J was revealed in the show and is happening in the books, and you deserve the lake of fire if you think otherwise. 

Final discussion question 

We know that there is one final “holy shit” moment that GRRM revealed to David Benioff and Dan Weiss in 2013. The first two were that Stannis burns Shireen and that Hodor means “Hold the Door.” Let’s put our cards on the table. What is the final “Holy shit” moment that we’ll see in Season 8?

Jeff: Sansa is pregnant with Ramsay’s child … I mean, Daenerys and Drogon will die.

Emmett: Stannis comes back from the dead … I mean, yeah, Dany and Drogon goin’ down. Not to be a copycat, but I think that’s what leapt to a lot of people’s minds first. 

Joanna: Tyrion betrays the “heroes” and does something turrible. 

Conclusion

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