United States Flash Report for 15 FEB 2024 15:30 PST - One Congress, Three Issues

Three things from the United States. One that directly impacts Ukraine. One that partially impacts Ukraine. One that impacts Americans.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson Ending Congressional Session for 13-Day President's Day Break

As someone who works 12 to 14-hour days five days a week and another four to six hours on my Friday-Saturday "weekend," and as someone who has been repeatedly told to go into politics, maybe I should. Life as a Congresscritter is cushy.

The subheader says it all. Congress is going home without voting on the Supplemental Spending Bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and won't reconvene until February 28. Parts of the Continuing Resolution that funds the U.S. government expire on March 1, and all funding ends on March 8. Washington D.C. observers believe that a partial government shutdown is almost unavoidable.

I desperately wanted to be wrong when the Senate Bill passed 70-29, and Republicans in the House stepped forward, calling for Speaker Johnson to put it up for a vote. So far, there has been no progress on a discharge petition.

The National Security Threat Hasn't Been Declassified, but it Appears to be a Space 'Doomsday' Weapon

Everything is pointing to the "national security threat" being a Russian nuclear weapon based in space meant to destroy satellites. Experts, including my good friend Alex Hollings at Sandboxx News, agreed with my assessment that even a small nuclear bomb would be catastrophic to everything in low earth orbit. In Holling's assessment, the Russian weapon, which does not appear to be deployed, is a strategic deterrent—something to have to back soft power threats.

Based on what we know from the U.S. 1962 nuclear tests and the records declassified in 2006, Starfish Prime in 2025 would almost certainly cause the Kessler Syndrome. An accelerating chain reaction of dead satellites and their debris crashing into each other, creating an ever-growing debris field.

Today, over 8,000 operational satellites are orbiting Earth, along with thousands more deactivated satellites parked in safe orbits and space debris. On the day of the Starfish Prime test, there were 24 operational satellites and about 100 other manmade objects in orbit. Six months later, 38% of those operational satellites, including the United Kingdom's first one, were destroyed.

To grossly oversimplify, Starfish Prime would take out 3,000 satellites and potentially the ISS or China's Tiangong space station in just the first six months. That's 3,000 satellites unable to hold their orbits, causing a cascade of other failures, creating an ever-increasing debris field, disabling more satellites until nothing in low earth orbit is left. A society-altering event that would also impact Russia and its allies. That's why a nuclear antisatellite system would be a "doomsday weapon."

There's another 800-pound elephant in the room. If that weapon system was orbital, it requires trusting Russia that it does not have a secondary capability to release those same warheads at earthbound targets.

Long-distance and international telecommunications, Internet, electronic commerce, scientific observation, weather forecasting, satellite surveillance, search and rescue, and disaster response management - all crippled. On the more remote corners of the earth, a return to 1950.

Come on! Most of those satellites were already hardened for electromagnetic pulses and radiation belts decades ago. Nope. As one U.S. official described the satellite network, the United States built a glass house because rocks hadn't been invented. Setting off even a small nuclear antisatellite weapon in space wouldn't be a rock; it would be a skyscraper-sized boulder landing at 1,000 kph on a 10-lane highway at rush hour. 

Interestingly, GPS likely wouldn't be impacted because the satellites orbit at 20,000 kilometers. However, as they aged, along with geosynchronous weather and communication satellites, there would be no way to replace them. The human race would be earthbound for decades. Sorry, Elon.

Should you panic?

No.

Need to dig that bunker?

No.

Does it appear Congressman Mike Turner (R-OH) overstated the threat in an attempt to push the Supplemental Spending Bill to the House floor? The truth matters. Yes, it does.

If you're an American, this is the Part You Should Read

Within the House, there was strong bipartisan agreement to modify Section 702 of the FISA Act. It was originally passed in 1978. Discussions about FISA started as early as 1968, and a series of domestic terrorist incidents, including the 1977 Hanafi Siege of Washington, became the force that led to the creation and passing of the Act.

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act gives Federal Agencies the power to conduct warrantless electronic monitoring of foreign threats within the United States. It created the U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) and gave power to these special courts to hold nonpublic sessions to consider issuing FISA Warrants, mostly after the fact. In 1978, this amounted to wiretapping of landline phones, intercepting physical mail, and following the movement of potential foreign agents operating within the United States. 

In 2001, the Patriot Act expanded the power of FISA, and in 2006, Patriot Act II renewed the expansion and added even more power. The measures were extremely controversial, enabling the government to warrantlessly spy on American citizens and get authorization through FISC after the fact, with no public record. In 2008, in a closed session of Congress, powers were further expanded.

FISA was based on good intentions, but hindsight revealed that since its Patriot Act expansion, it had been used to target non-foreign and non-violent activists, journalists, business leaders, and even politicians.

Back to the present day.

The House was supposed to vote on a measure that would limit the powers of FISA Section 702, mostly ending the ability to spy on American citizens without a warrant. Something that both parties agree should happen. This was widely seen as an easy political win for Speaker Johnson.

Inexplicably, Johnson killed the bill and pulled it from the floor. Even Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), who is tightly aligned with former President Donald Trump and the right-wing Christian Nationalist platform, was stunned. As a Senator, Lee wouldn't vote on the House bill, but it would have gone to the Senate had the House voted, where it faced easy approval.

The ACLU reported that Johnson is considering using a rarely used power in the Constitution to conduct a closed session. Instead of limiting the power of Section 702, Johnson is expected to try and push through a new bill that would extend it, dismantling months of work.

Since the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1788, the House has only held six secret sessions.

• 1825 - Confidential message from President Andrew Jackson calling for the forced removal of the indigenous peoples of North America in areas claimed by the United States
• 1830 - Confidential message from President Andrew Jackson about a bill that would further normalize trade between the United States and Great Britain
• 1979 - Implementing the Panama Canal Act, which transferred control of the waterway to Panama
• 1980 - The actions of Cuba, Soviet Union, and other "communist countries" in Nicaragua and an attempt to pass $75 million in emergency aid 
• 1983 - Authoring the monetary support of the Contras in Nicaragua
• 2008 - Expanding the powers of FISA 

While some Republicans, like Senator Lee, are speaking publicly about the situation, others will only comment in private. The word shock is being used a lot. This was seen as an easy win that would appeal to Independents and the existing voter base. 

Nope, you don't get an opinion, hot take, or assessment here. You've been equipped with the facts, and you can forge your own conclusions.