Updated: Russia-Ukraine Flash Report and Housekeeping - 23 FEB 24 15:00 PST - Russian A-50U Downed

Update: Literally after hitting send, analysts confirmed a video showing Russian air defense shooting down their own aircraft. That solves the mystery of how this happened.

A Russian A-50U, one of only eight AWACS aircraft remaining in the entire VKS, was shot down over the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia, near the Azov Sea. Absolutely confirmed by local reports and numerous videos. 

Russian milblogger Fighterbomber, who appears to have had a strong talking to by the Russian government after the first A-50 was shot down last month, has confirmed the airframe and crew loss.

He also suggests that Ukraine shot the plane down despite the incident happening 276 kilometers from the line of conflict.

The GUR reported that the A-50 was downed by a Soviet-era and very outdated S-200 antiaircraft missile. The S-200 definitely has the range and the capability, but the A-50U, by design, should have been aware of the threat almost immediately after launch. Video of the shot down, which happened at night, shows the Russian AWACS deploying countermeasures, which illuminated the exhaust from the missile right before impact. 

Hot take - because we're still analyzing. Occam's Razor declares the correct answer is S-200. It is the only asset that Ukraine has that could shoot down a plane that far away.

Is it possible Ukraine has received a new air defense weapon or developed its own? Nothing is zero, and Ukrainian engineers have repeatedly demonstrated incredible resourcefulness.

Is it possible Ukraine has platformed a surface-to-air missile on an unknown uncrewed surface vessel, or did the SSO do a special operation in a crewed vessel? A crewed strike has already happened in the summer of 2023. The Russian military doesn't have a huge presence in the Sea of Azov, but getting into the Sea of Azov undetected would be a tall order.

Was it Patriot? This one is impossible - Patriot doesn't have this kind of range.

Does Ukraine have F-16s and this is being kept secret? Nothing is zero, but extremely unlikely. It would be very hard for the Western press to keep quiet, and with known air-to-air missiles, an F-16 would have flown deep into Russian-controlled air space. Russian air defense may be a dumpster fire, but they aren't that much of a dumpster fire. If this was an air-to-air kill, the only thing preventing the world from knowing is a Russian cover-up.

Did Russia shoot down their own plane? Definitely not, because Russia is already claiming that a Ukrainian infiltrator controlled one of the Russian air defense systems and used it to shoot down the A-50U. The picture of their Ukrainian ID is comically bad.

But wait, there's more.

There is a massive amount of chatter from Russians who witnessed the crash that a second aircraft was downed. It is possible that after being hit, the A-50U broke apart, creating the illusion of two planes being shot down. On the other hand, the A-50U flies with an Il-22M command and control aircraft. Locals are absolutely insisting the second aircraft downed was an Il-76. That would align more with the break apart after being hit theory as the A-50 is a modified Il-76. Another slim possibility, the "second plane," if there was one, could be an Il-78 aerial refueling aircraft.

Russia also lost another aircraft near occupied Henichesk. That is almost certainly a Su-34 multirole fighter.

Why the increase in downed Russian aircraft?

Russia has dramatically increased the number of close air support, tactical, and strategic bombing missions. Last week, at the height of the Avdiivka offense, they flew one of the largest number of missions since the expansion of Russia's war of aggression. 

More aircraft, more targets. We've seen this before, with the best example in September 2022 during the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Ukraine definitely has a new long-range capability; that's undeniable, but that isn't the only thing driving the increase. More targets, more opportunities. 

Is The A-50U important?

Incredibly. Its closest cousins in the West are the E-3C Sentry and the Japanese E-767 AEW&C. The closest cousin to the Il-22M is the RC-135 Rivet Joint, but that is a bigger reach as the RC-135 has significantly more capabilities.

Before today, Russia had just eight A-50s. At the height of the Cold War, they had almost 50. The Kremlin just lost 13 percent of its global early airborne warning and control capabilities. The A-50U's mission is to track ground, sea, and air targets and coordinate air assets and air defense. The A-50s have always flown in support of Russian missile and drone attacks, but as Ukraine degraded Russian radar capabilities in occupied Crimea, the aircraft have had to take more chances.

The guts of the radar, warning, radio, and analysis systems are still mostly based on late 20th-century technology. Sanctions won't make building new ones impossible, but cost will be a problem. Each A-50U costs between $250 to $350 million, depending on the math you use. The other problem is the Il-76 manufacturing capacity. Russia can build less than ten Il-76s a year, and that's being generous as the pre-war delivery number was five to six a year. Some of those airframes are slated for foreign customers. Yes, Russia can say, "sucks to be you," but that has already created friction with the delay of other weapon systems to its largest customer, India.

Foreign weapon sales fuel a lot of Russia's R&D for more modern weapons. That isn't unique to Russia - that applies to every country, including the United States, with a large military-industrial complex. No foreign sales, no bucks. No bucks, no Buck Rodgers.

The other blow is the trained aircrews. Generously, they may have 24 fully trained crews when you consider crew rotation, training, command staff, check pilots and trainers, and even by Russian standards, pilots and technicians can't fly 24/7. The analysts and technicians are even harder to replace.

Finally, in a hypothetical World War III time to build your backyard bunker scenario, these aircraft would be required to support and coordinate bombing missions against vastly superior air defense systems.

Why would an A-50U and Il-22M fly without a combat air patrol and SEAD support?

That's the $250ish million question. The S-200 integrates with S-300 radars and command and control systems. But to hit a target at least 330 kilometers away (safely out of the range of enhanced Lancet one-way drones) requires the target to be illuminated for an extended period of time. Once the S-200 gets close enough, it uses an onboard semi-active radar for the terminal phase of its flight. Russia has the capability to fly to SEAD missions with the Kh-31P antiradiation missiles, which would force controllers to stop painting the target. That would have effectively ended the mission.

When it happens once, it's a mistake. When it happens twice in less than two months, someone should be sent to the gulag. Fortunately for Ukraine, the guilty parties are likely well protected, and have medals and promotions in their future.

Housekeeping

Given today is February 23, and marks the end of the second year of Russia's expanded war of aggression, there will be a SITREP today and a podcast for February 24. The podcast may be very late on the 24th, as I have an external news story related to Ukraine I'm covering in the field tomorrow.