Moldova-Transnistria Flash Report - 22 FEB 24 15:15 PST - If it looks like a psyop, it probably is

There is growing chatter that on February 28, the ruling Council of Transnistria will make a formal request to President Vladimir Putin to recognize the breakaway republic of Moldova and start an annexation process.

You've probably noticed this has no mention in the Situation Reports. We're very well aware of the chatter, and we are going to add it to the rumors section.

Romanian officials are unconcerned but admit it could be possible. In my assessment, this falls into the "the chance is never zero" category and not the "we know things" category. There is almost no coverage within the Moldovian press about the upcoming virtual meeting between the Transnistrian Council and Putin.

The last time Transnistria officially asked for annexation was in 2006. The geopolitics are different and less favorable for annexation. 

The oligarch behind Transnistria has no interest in war

The breakaway Republic of Transnistria remains stuck in 1979 and is the only part of the Eastern bloc that refuses, to this day, to recognize that the Soviet Union dissolved. The region is reliant mostly on the steel industry and retiree incomes.

In 2016, Vadim Krasnoselsky was elected as the illegitimate president of Transnistria, with a net worth of $5 million. Krasnoselsky was once a part owner of the Moldova Steel Works, which accounted for almost half of Transnistria's industrial output. In 2015, Russian enterprise Metallinvest sold the plant to the Transnistrian Council at a loss. Prior to March 2022, the facility took scrap metal from Ukraine and reprocessed it into bulk and rolled steel.

Krasnoselsky is deeply connected to Russian oligarch Viktor Gushan, with an estimated net worth of $2 billion. Gushan owns the Russian company Sheriff, which was created in 1993. Today, Sheriff is a defacto monopoly in Transnistria, controlling 60 percent of the entire economy, including total control of the oil, natural gas, and telecommunications industries. Sheriff provides deep discounts to pensioners and large families at their grocery stores, controlling the wholesale and retail grocery market. The prior president of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, exempted Sheriff from paying any import duties. It has been reported that Gushan is against changing the status quo.

Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine has hit Gushan's wallet. Before March 2022, exports from Transnistria that went to Russia, Belarus, Egypt, Turkey, and Greece mostly passed through Ukraine. After the border closed, all exports move through Moldova and most comply with Moldovian and European Union trade standards. Almost half of Transnistria's exports are destined for Moldova, which their leaders treat as a foreign country. Because of trade rules, exports to Russia and Belarus have plummeted. In 2024, Moldova started collecting import duties on certain Transnistrian goods.

Russia couldn't provide military support to Transnistria even if it wanted to

The Republic is landlocked, surrounded by Ukraine and Romania. Russian naval capabilities have been gutted, and four of the most critical vessels for an operation to support Transnistria, the large landing ships, are at the bottom of the Black Sea. Two more are severely damaged, and a third, the Azov, is constantly broken down. Russian ships don't venture past the edges of Crimea, and it isn't just due to Mk.5 Sea Baby uncrewed surface vessels. Ukraine has a very robust antiship missile capability, including internally developed Neptune missiles and NATO-provided weapons.

An airborne assault would also be impossible. Air access to Transnistria, including the rotation of Russian "peacekeepers," was done through a weird airport-sharing agreement with Moldova. That's been blocked by Moldova since March 2022. NATO surveillance would see an airborne force moving toward Romania and southwestern Ukraine.

Russia doesn't have enough forces within Transnistria

The Russian garrison is approximately 1,600 to 2,000 troops. Previously, Russia was doing rotations through commercial flights using fake passports. 

Transnistria has a paramilitary force of four motor infantry "brigades" staffed at battalion strength - around 5,000 members. They have less than 20 aged tanks and around 100 armored personnel carriers. The "air force" has a single Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopter. However, Moldova does not have air defense systems. 

The largest ammunition depot in Europe is allegedly in Cobasna and originally held up to 40,000 metric tons of munitions. As the Eastern Bloc pulled away from the Soviet Union, their weapons and ammunition were transferred to eastern Moldova on the edge of Ukraine, which is now in present-day Transnistria.

Russian sources who have worked in Cobasna have said that the actual amount of ammunition and equipment left is between 10,000 and 20,000 metric tons, and most are in a decrepit state. Other materials that would be extremely unstable include any remaining powder charges for artillery and fuses for shells and bombs. The cache at Cobasna includes pre-1990 Soviet military equipment, including armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Most of that equipment is pre-1980 and likely unmaintained.

Where did 20,000 to 30,000 metric tons of weapons and ammunition go? From 2000 to 2006. Russia removed hundreds of trainloads of munitions and weapons and destroyed tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery pieces in compliance with the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Additional material has disappeared due to corruption, illegal arms trade, and the disposal of improperly stored materials that had reached the Russian standard of "nope." In reality, there is very little left at Cobasna that would be of value, and there is nothing to support that the weapons were stored with better care than Russia stores their munitions in other parts of the world. 

There has been a lot of hand-wringing that if Cobasna were to explode, it would be equivalent to a 40-kiloton atomic bomb. That's untrue. The ammunition within Cobasna wouldn't explode all at once, like every other large ammunition depot we've seen explode in the last two years. It would cook off for hours, if not days, with a series of admittedly large explosions. The most dangerous material would be the solid fuel in Grad rockets, which is now very unstable. Further, the maximum amount of ammunition is down to 20,000 metric tons, half of the model that is circulated.

Transnistria needs Moldova, and Moldova needs Transnistria

The breakaway Republic and Moldova are intertwined with trade and power distribution. In 2022, Transnistria held more control, but those dynamics have shifted as Chișinău integrates further with Europe, particularly for natural gas. Transnistria's dependency on natural gas from Moldova directly impacts its ability to generate electricity, which helps support its industrial base. When Russia cut natural gas shipments to "unfriendly nations" Because of these interdependencies, in 2022, Transnistria was forced to suspend steel production temporarily.

Transnistria is the Florida Panhandle of Russia

Transnistria is a Russian pensioner's paradise. The climate is moderate compared to most of Russia, the cost of living is cheap, and the leadership is stuck in 1979, with a heavy dose of glasnost. Before Russia expanded its war of aggression, travel to Odesa and the Black Sea was possible. Almost 10 percent of Transnistria's population are Russian pensioners.

While angry babushkas should be the most feared force on the planet, pensioners have no appetite for war. Additionally, the total population of Transnistria is old and getting older. 

The last published census data was in 2015. Transnistria's population had dropped 15 percent in ten years to 475,000 people. In the same period, the percentage of pensioners grew from 19.9 percent to 27.7 percent. The largest demographic leaving Transnistria is 15 to 34 years old, evenly split between males and females.

Ironically, Transnistria encourages exit migration, actively advertising jobs in Europe and Russia and encouraging their brightest minds to go to foreign colleges. For those who take foreign jobs through government agencies, a remittance is paid. The last time clear economic information was available, remittances made up 18 percent of GDP! In the twelve years since the data was published, that number has almost certainly grown larger.  

Couldn't Russia finally announce they recognize the breakaway Republic

There is no such thing as zero percent. Yes, it is possible. Recognizing the Republic of Transnistria would complicate membership in the European Union and end any future NATO Alliance aspirations.

Previous Moldovan leaders and current President Maia Sandu have pledged neutrality and shied away from investing in the military. Russia's war of aggression has started to change that. Moldova has increased military training and openly stated it needs to expand its military capabilities and spending. President Sandu has not declared long-term aspirations to join NATO but has suggested that the country needs to build military alliances. Moscow would be motivated to block any alliance building.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs for Russia, Sergei Lavrov, exaggerated the number of Russian nationals in Transnistria at 200,000 - but Russian passport holders make up around 35 percent of the total population. Moscow does have a vested interest in the ex-pat population in the republic.

Ukraine has serious issues of its own and doesn't have the resources for a military intervention in Transnistria, even if it was asked. Further, Russia would use it for a propaganda win and an example of Ukrainian aggression if there was direct military intervention.

There is no reason to believe that Romania would respond with military support, nor NATO, the United States, or other European nations. There is no reason to believe the U.N. Security Council or General Assembly would support a resolution for a joint military mission to defend Moldova. Angry tweets, flowery rants at the U.N. Security Council, ineffective sanctions, toothless condemnations, and words of support for President Sandu and her government.

While the possibility is never zero, it is pretty close to it

Within the information space, the amount of chatter about the imminent recognition of Transnistria by Moscow is, in our assessment, amplifying a Russian disinformation campaign. Moldova is holding elections in May, and Moscow is doing everything it can to disrupt the process. Officially recognizing Transnistria would become a wedge issue in Moldovan politics.

Realistically, there is nothing that Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, or Russia can do to change the status quo. Further, the sudden recognition of Transnistria as a breakaway republic, which could lead to annexation, would set off more alarm bells within NATO and in European nations that continue to treat the Russian threat with ambivalence. That includes Romania, which has been overly tolerant of Russian drones entering its airspace and the mining and GPS jamming of its territorial waters.