Russia-Ukraine War Flash Report - 21 FEB 24 16:15 PST - Situation at Novomykhailivka Deteriorating

The lack of ammunition for Ukraine has reached a tipping point. Russian forces captured Pobieda, with Ukrainian troops withdrawing for force preservation. The small village withstood 10 years of war. 

We also adjusted the map at Novomykhailivka, bringing the line of conflict to the eastern edge of the settlement. The bulk of the fighting has moved east.

Novomykhailivka is now in a salient, currently a stable one. A Russian advance south from Pobieda to Kostyantynivka is somewhat complicated by terrain. The elevation drops on the T-532 Highway and then climbs again to the critical logistics hub for Ukraine. If Russian forces capture Kostyantynivka, forcing Ukraine from Novomykhailivka, it will seriously complicate the continued defense not just of Vuhledar but the entire area of operation.

Adding to the evidence that ammunition shortages have reached a tipping point, Russian forces have crept closer to the Ukrainian firebase at Nevelske. This has been impossible for two years despite TOS-1A attacks, airstrikes, and thousands of Russian troops killed. Nevelske has held because it is primarily a firebase, providing artillery cover to the south flank of the Avdiivka area of operation and the northern flank of the Marinka AO.

Russian forces are pushing surprisingly hard from the Avdiivka Coke Plant, but we don't believe that this can be sustained, and currently, these are ad hoc attacks. A combination of reconnaissance in force and squad and platoon-sized human wave assaults. Attacks that artillery would stop in its tracks.

We are sure that these attacks wouldn't be happening if Ukraine had adequate ammunition. Looking at it from the Kremlin side, the strategy to keep pushing makes sense.

There is growing anger in the Russian information space one layer below the more well-known propagandists. Critics are using careful language to call out the massive losses Russian troops are suffering, corrupt leadership, undertrained troops, and questions on the military value of recent attacks.

A year ago, when Progozhin was still alive, and other "turbo patriots" like Girkin were still free to say what they thought, the chance of more participation in the Prigozhin Insurrection would be higher. Now? They're screaming into a dangerous void. The Kremlin is executing a Stalinesque war. Russia is "all-in," motivated by a lack of United States aid, government dysfunction, and the neglected state of many European militaries. 

The situation has become critical, and in our assessment, Ukraine is implementing the best strategy and tactics it has left. Maximize Russian casualties, preserve remaining personnel and heavy equipment, and withdraw where needed.

A year ago, we were adamant about maintaining the defense of Bakhmut because the Ukrainian military had significant external support to sustain the battlefield. During that period, the question of fighting in Bakhmut today or falling back and fighting in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk over the summer was easy to answer. Fight in Bakhmut.

Ukraine has enough personnel to hold back a force that outnumbers them three to one. That's been proven repeatedly. But without ammunition, parts for sustainment, and the ability to hold air parity, personnel is not enough.

This might raise the next question - negotiate for peace?

No. We already know what Russian peace means. In 2011, President Vladimir Putin wrote his mini-Mein Kaumpf, and in it, he was crystal clear. He wants to be remembered as a tzar, the next Peter the Great, and restore the borders of the Russian Imperial Empire.

Surrender or pressing for peace in Ukraine means World War III in the lifetime of anyone reading this. So far, President Putin has done everything that he set out to do in his 2011 manifesto. Why would anyone believe that in 2024, that will change?

Negotiating for peace would be surrendering to a government that has attacked its own people in Belgorod twice in an attempt to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Yesterday's rocket strike on Donetsk was impossible to have come from Ukraine. Rockets don't turn at 90-degree angles to hit the eastern side of a multistory building from the west.

Russia is openly executing prisoners of war. And they'll be more about this in a future SITREP and podcast. And then there is Bucha. And surrendering or negotiating a "peace" will be a lot more Buchas the world will never see.

And in the eyes of the international community, these actions only get a passing mention. Russia refuses to work with the International Committee of the Red Cross, doesn't give the United Nations access to the occupied territories, and doesn't allow international investigations. Ukraine's efforts to be transparent work against them. 

So, all that is left is to fight, maximize casualties, save as many civilians as possible, and withdraw when the positions become untenable.

Is Ukraine on the brink of collapse?

No. If the entire Ukrainian military quit tonight and walked away, it would still take Russia months to secure all of Ukraine. They would need to establish logistics and supply lines in a nation roughly the size of Texas.

To administer 30 million people under occupation will require 1.5 million troops on the ground, skilled in civilian administration. Without that, Russia will deal with an insurgency that will turn into a quagmire.

Unlike Chechnya, Ukraine is more than 36 times larger, and the population under occupation would be 30 times bigger, even accounting for fleeing refugees.

But choking on an insurrection won't stop Russian ambition. Once the world turns away, brutality not seen since 1939 will be the new order.